It's hard to think about a frost or a killing freeze with temps expected well into the 90s this weekend.

However, if you believe what both the Farmer's Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac have to say about this upcoming winter, it could be a nasty one.  Both of these publications are saying we are going to have below-normal temperatures this winter and above-average precipitation for North Dakota.

This goes against however what a typical El Nino winter pattern brings us in North Dakota.  Normally, you can expect a warmer and dryer winter when we go into an El Nino.  We'll see who's right or wrong.

Every year, I enjoy letting you know my fearless prediction when I expect North Dakota will see its first snow.  Let me first preface by saying I'm not a meteorologist, but I may have missed my calling to be one.  I figure if those guys can be wrong 80% of the time, why can't I take a shot at a weather prediction now and then by looking at weather models?  Last year, by the way, I was literally off by a day in my first snow-of-the-year prediction.

I figured this year I would go one step further and let you know when we might expect our first frost and first killing freeze in North Dakota.

First off, don't expect it in September.  The month looks warm with above-average temps.  According to Accuweather Bismarck, we won't even see overnight lows in the 40s until late in the month and those will be in the upper 40s.

So, when will we see our first frost and killing freeze in Bismarck Mandan?

Things will start to turn significantly cooler in October.  According to Accuweather and other models I've looked at, we could be looking at our first frost somewhere near the date of October 10th. 

Our first killing freeze in Bismarck Mandan is likely near the date of October 15th.

Coming soon, I will share my amateur forecasting skills and give you my annual prediction of when we are likely to see our first snow.  Again, last year I was a day off.  BOOM!

In the meantime, stay cool my friends, it's going to be a scorcher of a Labor Day weekend.

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