Could North Dakota’s First Snowfall Be Sooner Than You Think?

For four of the last seven years in North Dakota, we have had early snowfalls.

Seven years ago much of the state saw snowfall in late September.  Six Autumns ago the same thing happened in North Dakota.  Five years ago, not only did we see snow early, but it was a major blizzard.

From October 10th to 13th 2019, the state saw anywhere from a foot to three feet over much of the state.  Here in Bismarck, we officially saw around 17 inches of snow.  This came right before the weekend of the state pheasant opener.  Travel was pretty much at a standstill except for the far western portions of the state.

This record-breaking October blizzard certainly left its mark by the time the storm finally began moving out of the area on Sunday. Total snow accumulations as high as 36 inches were observed near Harvey with drifts over 10 feet tall.  These drifts were as high as some homes.  Snow drifts between one and two feet were common in central and eastern portions of North Dakota.

Travel was just about impossible over much of the state as I-94, Highway 83, and other major highways were shut down because of the blizzard.  Tree damage was also common, especially in eastern North Dakota where most trees had yet to shed all of their leaves.

If you remember, the timing of this blizzard was terrible for the farming community.  Very few crops were out of the ground due to the already wet Summer and Fall.  This storm delayed the Fall harvest, and in some cases, crops were not harvested until the Spring of 2020.

When will we see our first snowfall in Bismarck and the rest of North Dakota in 2024?

That is always the million-dollar question. After last season's very mild winter and the previous near-record-setting snowfall (100-plus inches in Bismarck), you just never know.  It seems like it's never the norm, always extremes.

The first snow of the season by the way is widely accepted as a snowfall that puts .01 inch of snow on the ground as defined by meteorologists.  It has to stick and not melt right away.

I'm not a meteorologist, I'm just a weather nerd but I have done my homework looking at the long-range models, and after chatting with the fine folks at the National Weather Service, here's what I have come up with for the first snowfall of 2024..

We already know that September looks to be pretty warm.  Above-average temperatures are expected for much of the month.  We have nothing to worry about for September snow.

October will start out warm and stay near average until the end of the month.  Starting Wednesday, October 23rd we will see lows below freezing which means snow is always possible.  There is a chance for precipitation at the beginning of this period, but it doesn't look that impressive at this point.

Let's move on to November, Does that mean we're looking at another November first snow like last year?  I think so, and at this point, it looks like it will be a non-event with just an inch or two of snow.

My fearless prediction for the Bismarck Mandan's first snowfall will be November 13th. 

(I have to say, my predictions for the first snowfall have been pretty close to accurate for somebody without a meteorology degree)

November doesn't look all that promising for big snow events in general and warmer-than-average temperatures, especially for the first few weeks.  You might have to wait for December or even January if you want some significant snowfalls over North Dakota.

In the meantime, enjoy the fall colors and the warmer-than-average fall.  Don't worry, winter will get here soon enough.