Pinpointing Bismarck’s First Snow Of The Season. October?

Now that western North Dakota has had its first taste of winter (anywhere from 3 to 9 inches of snow), in Golden Valley, Slope, and Bowman counties. It's time to pinpoint when Bismarck, North Dakota will receive its first real shot at snow.  Will it come in October like the last 3 seasons?  Actually, we even saw a trace of snow in September of 2018.

I sat down and had a conversation with the always pleasant employees at the National Weather Service in Bismarck to discuss when we might see our first snow in Bismarck.  Will it be 4 straight years of white stuff in October?  We came to the conclusion it's very UNLIKELY we will see snow in Bismarck this year in October.  In fact, any form of precipitation for the rest of this month is unlikly.

Last October, you might remember we saw snow and very unseasonably cold weather the week of October 15th, which brought us anywhere from a trace of snow to 2 inches just about every day through the 20th of October.  October of 2019 was the infamous Pheasant Opener Blizzard which brought us 17 inches of snow in Bismarck on October 11th.  October of 2018 gave us early snow that year as well.  However, as I said earlier, we just don't have any real chances of precipitation for the rest of the month.

So, here goes.  My fearless prediction for Bismarck's first snow of the season.  This is almost as much fun as picking NFL football games.  The way it looks in the long-term weather models, either Thursday, November 4th, or Friday, November 5th looks like our first real chance of snow in Bismarck.  Just in time for the deer opener.