Update On Expected Snow Chances In South-Central ND

Snow is Coming to Our Neck of the Woods

South-Central and southwest North Dakota will likely see some flakes this Monday afternoon and evening, but the prospects for accumulating snow are decreasing. Especially the further north you are from the South Dakota border, according to the National Weather Service.

The areas that have the best chance for accumulating snow, and we are only talking about an inch, would be the extreme south-central North Dakota, places like Linton, Strasburg, Hague, Selfridge, and Fort Yates.

First Measurable Snow of the Season

In order for it to be considered the first measurable snow of the season, we must have 0.1 of an inch of snow on the ground (1/10 of an inch). That means snow that melts on contact with the surface does not count. Even a trace amount on the ground does not count as an official snowfall. We will see how this plays out this evening, but as of right now it doesn't look likely Bismarck-Mandan will see its first snowfall today.

(SEE ALSO: We have Pinpointed When Bismarck will see it's First Official Snowfall)

If Not Tonight, When?

In the link above, I made my fearless prediction of when I believe we will see this year's first official snowfall in Bismarck. Full disclosure, I'm not a meteorologist, just a weather nerd who enjoys looking at weather models. It appears my prediction is going to be off. Earlier long-term weather models were hinting at a snow system around November 9th. Long-term forecasts now look too warm for snow. It now looks like we may have to wait until the weekend before Thanksgiving (around November 21st) before it looks cold enough for a chance of snow.

For all of you snow enthusiasts, don't worry, snow is coming, but with an El Niño fall, the warm weather pattern is holding. More time to put away the summer patio furniture you have been procrastinating about. I know I have.