Bundle Up, North Dakota—The Farmer’s Almanac Has Spoken!

The Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter predictions, and let’s just say… it’s time to find that parka you stuffed in the closet last April. According to the forecast, North Dakota can expect a long season filled with plenty of cold and snow. Shocking? Not exactly. But considering how crisp these last few mornings have been, we’d say they’re probably right on the money.

Get our free mobile app

First Frost Could Hit North Dakota by September 22—Give or Take a Few Chilly Nights

But before the snow starts flying, there’s the small matter of the first frost. The Almanac predicts it will arrive on September 22, which feels both early and… well, entirely expected for the Peace Garden State. That date isn’t carved in ice, though. The Farmer's Almanac uses climate data from 1991–2020 (thanks, NOAA!) and calculates frost dates with a 30% probability threshold. Translation? There’s about a 3-in-10 chance Jack Frost will show up earlier—or fashionably late.

Read More: Why North Dakota’s Prettiest Towns Should Be On Your Radar

North Dakota’s First Frost: More of a Weather Suggestion Than a Guaranteed Date

Of course, North Dakota is known for its weather mood swings, and microclimates mean your backyard might stay frost-free a little longer than your neighbor’s. Or vice versa. So, while September 22 is the official prediction, think of it as more of a weather suggestion than a promise.

Either way, it’s probably a good idea to finish up that last round of yardwork, rescue your tomatoes, and start prepping for another classic North Dakota winter. Cold, snowy, and probably a little unpredictable—but hey, that’s why we love it, right?